Question:

1. Trade & Food Sovereignty (Regional Focus): How might the recent U.S. trade measures, including tariffs, impact food importation patterns in small island developing states (SIDS), and what strategies could be pursued to strengthen regional food sovereignty and reduce external dependency?

The additional import tariffs and new restrictive measures, imposed by the US are likely to have a real though largely indirect impact on food import patterns in SIDS and ultimately, they can contribute to undermining national and regional strategies for promoting and supporting domestic production aimed at reducing dependency on food from abroad.
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Direct effect of higher tariffs
Given the large size of the US market, the immediate consequences of increasing the duty on food imports will not only be felt domestically, but also globally. They can be expected to include the following:
1)        Increase prices faced by US importers and consumers since it is unlikely, particularly in the long term, that the entire levy will be absorbed by the exporters.
2)        Reduce the demand in the USA for imported food items and hence the volumes that are sold there.
3)        Increase world market supply since, as sales and possibly profits of existing exporters to the USA decline, they can be expected to seek to divert some or even all the substantial quantities that they had been exporting to the US, to alternative and now relatively more lucrative markets.
4)        Intensification of competition on the world market with a consequent decline in prices as the additional supplies that have been diverted from the US now seek new outlets.
Whilst the above can be expected, it is not possible to definitively project outcomes since other factors also can have influence. One is how third countries and their exporters and importers respond to the changing situation.  Adding to the uncertainty, is the apparent unpredictability and volatility in current US tariff policy which can reduce the ability of businesses to plan in a coherent and rational manner. 

Impact on SIDS Imports
With exports that had been destined for the USA, now having to be diverted, new buyers will have to be found. These could be within existing markets where the exporters seek to expand their share at the expense of competitors. Alternatively, or additionally, they might try to establish in new markets. Both strategies would require them to outbid competition from those trying to enter as well as those already in the target market who are seeking to safeguard or expand their existing market share.  The result for importers, outside of the USA could be potentially lower prices and more favourable supply conditions. 
The overall possible impact of the increased US tariffs on SIDS’ food import patterns can be in the following areas:

• Expansion of import volumes: The potentially lower prices can make importation more lucrative and attractive and hence would be likely to boost volumes.
• Diversification of sources of supply: As changes emerge in the identities of the countries from which SIDS find it most advantageous to import food, the countries from which they source their food supplies can change if their importers are willing and able to switch to those that are now more competitive.

These consequences though, will not necessarily be automatic but depend on importers’ access to appropriate market intelligence and their ability to identify the now most competitive suppliers and negotiate and secure more favourable deals.

The challenge of scale: In the case of SIDS, given their small size and other constraints, their ability to take advantage of these changes can be substantially less than those of larger countries with greater bargaining power and fuller integration into, and better accessibility to the major international trading circuits.
The outcome and benefit for their importers would depend on their flexibility in being able to shift to more competitive sources so as to secure the better prices and terms.  Among the inhibiting factors will be the likely small quantities that they require with the consequent higher unit costs of freight etc. This consideration can be particularly relevant when new suppliers are more distant or less well connected than the existing ones. 

Food sovereignty and external dependency
Whilst potentially lower food prices have benefits, the now cheaper imports can compete with and constrain domestic food production. This situation can frustrate aspirations for promoting food sovereignty, which is itself an essential requirement for reducing dependency on food imports.
There is consensus in most SIDS around the desirability of these objectives, as well as of the need for food security. However, by intensifying competition on international markets that potentially lowers the prices of food imports into SIDS, the US measures can undermine their domestic food production and food sovereignty. This is because the cheaper imports are now more competitive against the domestically produced food.
SIDS need the export market. Given the small size of the local market, it might not on its own provide a sufficient outlet to permit domestic production to achieve and sustain the levels to be able to benefit from the minimum economies of scale required to be competitive.  Being able to export can often be essential.  However, domestic producers can find that their exports also face stiffer competition in foreign markets.  This situation can further jeopardise the viability and sustainability of domestic food production. SIDS need to be able to operate profitably on both the domestic and the export markets.
The US measures can ultimately harm domestic food production in SIDS, promote dependency on imports and undermine food sovereignty.

A strategy for SIDS:
These countries need a coherent strategy that identifies and supports the selected lines of production that have realistic prospects for achieving international competitiveness. It should entail and be complemented, among others measures with:

• appropriate and adequate programmes for investment, training, marketing, capacity building etc.
• a framework of deeper regional cooperation efforts, where there is integration along the various stages of production from growing to processing, packaging, right through to distribution.
• systems to ensure fair competition.
• a set of carefully designed and appropriate trade measures to shield domestic production from import surges that could wipe it out. Nonetheless, only operations that have genuine capability to achieve international competitiveness should be selected for such support, which should be carefully monitored and not continued beyond the period required.
• Regional policies, which promote and support food production and strengthen regional food sovereignty and reduce external dependency,

 
Provisos
There are other factors that could influence the imports of SIDS and their optimal strategic responses. These include:
·      Since the tariff increases can depress prices on the world market this could in the long-term, lead to export volumes being cut back if it is no longer lucrative for suppliers to maintain them at pre-existing levels.  Depending on the extent of such reductions in supplies coming on to the world market, prices for particular food items might not decline as envisaged.
·      There can be further changes in global markets conditions that influence the situation facing SIDS since the US is in trade negotiations with most of its major trading partners.
·      Other countries might also initiate their own tariff and/or restrictive trade measures, whether motivated by a desire to retaliate, protect their domestic producers or out of a desire to emulate a policy that is perceived as having domestic populist appeal.